Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling

Michał Górski

Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling

Data publikacji: 29.03.2022

Problems of Forensic Sciences (Z Zagadnień Nauk Sądowych), 2021, 126-127, s. 101 - 120

https://doi.org/10.4467/12307483PFS.20.006.15446

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Tytuły

Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling

Abstrakt

The main aim of this research was to establish a minimum series length when crime opportunities are not distributed at random. In addition, the behaviour of two methods of assessing the accuracy of a geographic profiling algorithms were analysed. The second objective was to analyse the existence and properties of the buffer zone in the created model. For the purpose of this research, a simulation was used. Data showed significantly different behaviour in the two tested methods of assessing the accuracy of geographic profiling, with hit score percentage being the significantly more sensitive measurement. The tests allowed all of the effects attributed to the buffer zone to be obtained, despite the fact that it was not included in the model itself. For series as long as nine offences accuracy in non-random conditions was similar to series length five and uniform distribution of opportunities.

Słowa kluczowe

Geographic profiling; Target backcloth; Buffer zone; Distance error; Hit score percentage

Bibliografia

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Informacje

Informacje: Problems of Forensic Sciences (Z Zagadnień Nauk Sądowych), 2021, 126-127, s. 101 - 120

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4467/12307483PFS.20.006.15446

Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy

Tytuły:

Polski:

Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling

Angielski:

Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling

Autorzy

Michał Górski

Kolegium Międzywydziałowych Indywidualnych Studiów Matematyczno-Przyrodniczych, Uniwersytet Warszawski

Publikacja: 29.03.2022

Otrzymano: 16.07.2020

Zaakceptowano: 17.12.2021

Status artykułu: Otwarte

Licencja: CC BY-NC-ND

Udział procentowy autorów:

Michał Górski (Autor) - 100%

Korekty artykułu:

Języki publikacji:

Angielski, Polski

Liczba wyświetleń: 491

Liczba pobrań: 394

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