Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu
cytuj
pobierz pliki
RIS BIB ENDNOTEWybierz format
RIS BIB ENDNOTEPrzyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu
Data publikacji: 22.08.2017
Prace Geograficzne, 2017, Zeszyt 149, s. 7 - 14
https://doi.org/10.4467/20833113PG.17.007.6923Autorzy
Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu
Future changes of selected climate indices in Poland based on the results of dynamical downscaling
The paper shows the expected changes in selected climatic indices on the basis of the results of dynamic downscaling for the 2041–2070 period with regard to the 1971–2000 period in the Polish territory. Results of the EURO CORDEX simulations with a resolution of 50 km and 12.5 km and regional models HIRHAM5, RACMO22E and the RCA4 driven by EC EARTH global climate model and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used.
The maps showing absolute differences in the following climatic indices: number of frost days, ice days, summer days, wet days and days with precipitation exceeding 10 and 20 mm, between the values obtained in the scenarios and the values obtained for the reference period have been analysed. All the model results show an increase in the global temperature resulting in a decrease in the number of frost and ice days and an increase in the number of summer days. The models also show an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation. Despite general similarities between the results of the simulations, some differences are evident, mainly due to model-specific setup.
IPCC, 2013, Stocker T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M., Allen S.K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., Midgley P.M. (red.), Climate change 2013: The physical science basis: Contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jacob D., Petersen J., Eggert B., Alias A., Christensen O.B., Bouwer L.M., Braun A., Colette A., Déqué M., Georgievski G., Georgopoulou E., Gobiet A., Menut L., Nikulin G., Haensler A., Hempelmann N., Jones C., Keuler K., Kovats S., Kröner N., Kotlarski S., Kriegsmann A., Martin E., van Meijgaard E., Moseley C., Pfeifer S., Preuschmann S., Radermacher C., Radtke K., Rechid D., Rounsevell M., Samuelsson P., Somot S., Soussana J.-F., Teichmann C., Valentini R., Vautard R., Weber B., Yiou P., 2014, EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental Change, 14 (2), 563–578.
Jaczewski A., Brzóska B., Wibig J., 2015,Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period, MeteorologischeZeitschrift, 24 (1), 99–106.
Klein Tank A.M.G., Zwiers F.W., Zhang X., 2009,Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation, WMO Climate Data and Monitoring, 1500 (72), 56.
Kotlarski S., Keuler K., Christensen O.B., Colette A., Déqué M., Gobiet A., Goergen K., Jacob D., Lüthi D., Meijgaard E. van, Nikulin G., Schär C., Teichmann C., Vautard R., Warrach-Sagi K., Wulfmeyer V., 2014, Regional climate modeling on European scales: A joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geoscientific Model Development, 7 (4), 1297–1333.
Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., Vuuren D.P. van, Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakicenovic N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.J., 2010, The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463 (7282) 747–756.
Pieri A.B., Hardenberg J. von, Parodi A., Provenzale A., 2015, Sensitivity of precipitation statistics to resolution, microphysics, and convective parameterization: A case study with the high-resolution WRF Climate Model over Europe, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16 (4), 1857–1872.
Riahi K., Rao S., Krey V., Cho C., Chirkov V., Fischer G., Kindermann G., Nakicenovic N.,Rafaj P., 2011, RCP 8.5 – A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109 (1–2), 33–57.
Thomson A.M., Calvin K.V., Smith S.J., Kyle G.P., Volke A., Patel P., Delgado-Arias S., Bond-Lamberty B., Wise M.A., Clarke L.E., Edmonds J.A., 2011, RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, 109 (1–2), 77–94.
Wibig J., Jakusik E. (red.), 2012, Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko, gospodarkę i społeczeństwo. Zmiany, skutki i sposoby ich ograniczania, wnioski dla nauki, praktyki inżynierskiej i planowania gospodarczego, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, Warszawa.
Wibig J., Jędruszkiewicz J., 2015, How reliable are selected methods of projections of future thermal conditions? A case from Poland, Quaestiones Geographicae, 34 (3), 151–160.
Wiel K. van der, Kapnick S.B., Vecchi G.A., Cooke W.F., Delworth T.L., Jia L., Murakami H., Underwood S., Zeng F., 2016,The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. Precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing, Journal of Climate, 29 (22), 7991–8012.
Winkler J.A., Guentchev G.S., Perdinan, Tan P.-N., Zhong S., Liszewska M., Abraham Z., Niedźwiedź T., Ustrnul Z., 2011, Climate scenario development and applications for local/regional climate change impact assessments: An overview for the non-climate scientist, Part I: Scenario development using downscaling methods, Geography Compass, 5 (6), 275–300.
Informacje: Prace Geograficzne, 2017, Zeszyt 149, s. 7 - 14
Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy
Tytuły:
Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu
Future changes of selected climate indices in Poland based on the results of dynamical downscaling
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa
Publikacja: 22.08.2017
Status artykułu: Otwarte
Licencja: CC BY-NC-ND
Udział procentowy autorów:
Korekty artykułu:
-Języki publikacji:
PolskiLiczba wyświetleń: 1810
Liczba pobrań: 1493