„De incerti aestimatione” („O szacowaniu rzeczy niepewnych”) G.W. Leibniza z 1678-ego roku stanowi próbę wyprowadzenia ogólnej metody dla rozwiązania problemu punktów, czyli podziału puli w dowolnej rundzie gry. Część wyjaśniająca zawiera szereg definicji i pomysłów pojawiających się w pismach Leibniza w poprzednich latach. Wśród nich znajduje się definicja pojęcia prawdopodobieństwa (probabilitas) kojarzonego wówczas z niezakończonym jeszcze sporem o probabilizm moralno-teologiczny. Jest to w tym wypadku skojarzenie uzasadnione faktem, że w korespondencji i późniejszych pismach Leibniz proponuje rozważać prawdopodobieństwo w znaczeniu matematycznym w przeciwieństwie do znaczenia używanego w teologii moralnej. „De incerti aestimatione” jest drugą pracą Leibniza, w której poświęca on uwagę grom, zagadnieniu ich sprawiedliwości i oczekiwanej wartości, którą nazywa nadzieją. W artykule omówiono prawne, moralne i metafizyczne konteksty pojęć probabilitas, jus (prawa) i ratio, jak również ograniczenia moralnego zastosowania pojęcia prawdopodobieństwa. Przedstawiono także rozwiązanie problemu punktów przez Leibniza, które, choć błędne, stanowi niezależną od Pascala propozycję zastosowania do tego problemu metody rekurencyjnej.

ABSTRAKT

Games and Uncertain Things – a Commentary to G.W. Leibniz’s De incerti aestimatione

"De incerti aestimatione" ("On the estimation of uncertain things") by G.W. Leibniz in 1678 is an attempt to derive a general method for the problem of points, that is, the division of the stake in any round of the game. The explanatory section contains a number of definitions and ideas appearing in Leibniz's writings in earlier years. Among them is a definition of the concept of probability (probabilitas) associated at the time with the still unfinished debate over moral-theological probabilism. This association is justified in this case by the fact that in his correspondence and later writings Leibniz proposes to consider probability in a mathematical sense as opposed to the meaning used in moral theology. "De incerti aestimatione" is Leibniz's second work, in which he devotes attention to games, the issue of their justice and expected value, which he calls hope. The article discusses the legal, moral and metaphysical contexts of the concepts of probabilitas, jus (law) and ratio, as well as the limitations of the moral application of probability. Leibniz's solution to the problem of points is also presented, which, although flawed, is an independent proposal from Pascal for applying the recursive method to this problem.

"De incerti aestimatione" ("On the estimation of uncertain things") by G.W. Leibniz in 1678 is an attempt to derive a general method for the problem of points, that is, the division of the stake in any round of the game. The explanatory section contains a number of definitions and ideas appearing in Leibniz's writings in earlier years. Among them is a definition of the concept of probability (probabilitas) associated at the time with the still unfinished debate over moral-theological probabilism. This association is justified in this case by the fact that in his correspondence and later writings Leibniz proposes to consider probability in a mathematical sense as opposed to the meaning used in moral theology. "De incerti aestimatione" is Leibniz's second work, in which he devotes attention to games, the issue of their justice and expected value, which he calls hope. The article discusses the legal, moral and metaphysical contexts of the concepts of probabilitas, jus (law) and ratio, as well as the limitations of the moral application of probability. Leibniz's solution to the problem of points is also presented, which, although flawed, is an independent proposal from Pascal for applying the recursive method to this problem.