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Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu

Publication date: 22.08.2017

Geographical Studies, 2017, Issue 149, pp. 7 - 14

https://doi.org/10.4467/20833113PG.17.007.6923

Authors

,
Barbara Brzóska
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa
All publications →
Adam Jaczewski
Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa
All publications →

Titles

Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu

Abstract

Future changes of selected climate indices in Poland based on the results of dynamical downscaling

The paper shows the expected changes in selected climatic indices on the basis of the results of dynamic downscaling for the 2041–2070 period with regard to the 1971–2000 period in the Polish territory. Results of the EURO CORDEX simulations with a resolution of 50 km and 12.5 km and regional models HIRHAM5, RACMO22E and the RCA4 driven by EC EARTH global climate model and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used.
The maps showing absolute differences in the following climatic indices: number of frost days, ice days, summer days, wet days and days with precipitation exceeding 10 and 20 mm, between the values obtained in the scenarios and the values obtained for the reference period have been analysed. All the model results show an increase in the global temperature resulting in a decrease in the number of frost and ice days and an increase in the number of summer days. The models also show an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation. Despite general similarities between the results of the simulations, some differences are evident, mainly due to model-specific setup.

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Information

Information: Geographical Studies, 2017, Issue 149, pp. 7 - 14

Article type: Original article

Titles:

Polish:

Przyszłe zmiany wybranych wskaźników klimatycznych dla Polski na podstawie wyników dynamicznego downscalingu

English:

Future changes of selected climate indices in Poland based on the results of dynamical downscaling

Authors

Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa

Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, ul. Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa

Published at: 22.08.2017

Article status: Open

Licence: CC BY-NC-ND  licence icon

Percentage share of authors:

Barbara Brzóska (Author) - 50%
Adam Jaczewski (Author) - 50%

Article corrections:

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Publication languages:

Polish