FAQ

Rocznik Kognitywistyczny

Istotność statystyczna II. Pułapki interpretacyjne

Data publikacji: 16.03.2017

Rocznik Kognitywistyczny, 2016, Tom 9, s. 59 - 70

https://doi.org/10.4467/20843895RK.16.006.6412

Autorzy

Piotr Wolski
Uniwersytet Jagielloński w Krakowie, Polska, ul. Gołębia 24, 31-007 Kraków
Wszystkie publikacje autora →

Tytuły

Istotność statystyczna II. Pułapki interpretacyjne

Abstrakt

Statistical significance II. Interpretive pitfalls

The second of the series of essays on the problems of significance testing in psychological research focuses on inconsistencies of the logic of these tests and resulting problems with interpretation. The limits of their practical usability have been discussed, and reasons of their failure with a priori unlikely null-hypotheses explained. Misleading connotations of the term “statistical significance” have been stressed, that obscure the true meaning of statistical significance and promote bad practices, including overestimation of significance, and neglecting the problem of effect size.
 

Bibliografia

Bem, D.J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 407–425. doi:10.1037/a0021524

Bem, D.J., Utts, J., Johnson, W.O. (2011). Must psychologists change the way they analyze their data? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 101(4), 716–719. doi:10.1037/a0024777

Cumming, G. (2014). The new statistics: Why and how. Psychological Science, 25(1), 7–29. doi:10.1177/0956797613504966

Fenton, N., Neil, M. (2011). Avoiding probabilistic reasoning fallacies in legal practice using bayesian networks. Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy, 36, 114.

Fisher, R.A. (1971). The Design of Experiments (wyd. 8). New York: Hafner Publishing Company.

Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Mindless statistics. Journal of Socio-Economics, 33(5), 587–606. doi:10.1016/j.socec.2004.09.033

Haller, H., Krauss, S. (2002). Misinterpretations of significance: A problem students share with their teachers? Methods of Psychological Research Online, 7(1).

Halsey, L.G., Curran-Everett, D., Vowler, S.L., Drummond, G.B. (2015). The fickle P value gene-
rates irreproducible results. Nature Methods, 12(3), 179–185. doi:10.1038/nmeth.3288

Kalinowski, P., Fidler, F., Cumming, G. (2008). Overcoming the inverse probability fallacy. Metho-
dology: European Journal of Research Methods for the Behavioral and Social Sciences
, 4(4), 152–158. doi:10.1027/1614-2241.4.4.152

Kirk, R.E. (1996). Practical significance: A concept whose time has come. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 56(5), 746.

Meehl, P.E. (1978). Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46(4), 806–834.

Oakes, M.W. (1986). Statistical Inference. A Commentary for the Social and Behavioural Sciences (s. 185). New York: Wiley.

Salsburg, D. (2013). The Lady Tasting Tea. How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century. New York: Henry Holt and Company.

Stroop, J.R. (1935). Studies of interference in serial verbal reactions. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 18, 643–662.

Wagenmakers, E.J., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D., van der Maas, H.L. (2011). Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: The case of psi: Comment on Bem (2011). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 426–432. doi:10.1037/a0022790

Westover, M.B., Westover, K.D., Bianchi, M.T. (2011). Significance testing as perverse probabilistic reasoning. BMC Medicine, 9, 20. doi:10.1186/1741-7015-9-20

Wilkinson, L., APA Task Force on Statistical Inference. (1999). Statistical methods in psychology journals: Guidelines and explanations. American Psychologist, 54(8), 594–604.

Wojciszke, B. (2004). Systematycznie modyfikowane autoreplikacje: Logika programu badań empirycznych w psychologii. W: J. Brzeziński (red.), Metodologia badań psychologicznych. Wybór tekstów (s. 44–60). Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.

Informacje

Informacje: Rocznik Kognitywistyczny, 2016, s. 59 - 70

Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy

Tytuły:

Polski:

Istotność statystyczna II. Pułapki interpretacyjne

Angielski:

Statistical significance II. Interpretive pitfalls

Autorzy

Uniwersytet Jagielloński w Krakowie, Polska, ul. Gołębia 24, 31-007 Kraków

Publikacja: 16.03.2017

Status artykułu: Otwarte __T_UNLOCK

Licencja: Żadna

Udział procentowy autorów:

Piotr Wolski (Autor) - 100%

Korekty artykułu:

-

Języki publikacji:

Polski

Liczba wyświetleń: 2152

Liczba pobrań: 1532