FAQ
Logotyp Agencji Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego

The genesis, theory, and practice of Russian coercive migration engineering. A contribution to the study of the migration crisis on NATO’s eastern flank

Data publikacji: 11.05.2022

Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego, 2022, Numer 26 (14), s. 263 - 300

https://doi.org/10.4467/20801335PBW.21.042.15702

Autorzy

Michał Wojnowski
Niezależny badacz
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9009-1599 Orcid
Wszystkie publikacje autora →

Tytuły

The genesis, theory, and practice of Russian coercive migration engineering. A contribution to the study of the migration crisis on NATO’s eastern flank

Abstrakt

The purpose of this article is to present the origins and assumptions of the Russian concept of coercive migration engineering and its practical application with particular emphasis on the role of special services in such activities. The engineering of coercive migration has become an unprecedented form of leverage through which the Russian Federation pursues its geopolitical interests. The country’s use of this tool is a fact and not a conspiracy theory devoid of empirical evidence, as some analysts associated with European Union institutions believe. A comparison of the course of the exodus of Cubans from Mariel to Miami in 1980 and the Finnish-Russian migration crisis in 2015-2016 proves that at least since the Cold War, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and then the Russian Federation - on the basis of innovative approaches to security problems and conflict theory in military science –have developed effective means and methods of engineering coercive migration, making it a tool for destabilizing states and forcing political concessions favorable to themselves.

Bibliografia

Pobierz bibliografię
Alenius K., Asylum Seekers From Russia to Finland: A Hybrid Operation by Chance?, in: Proceeding of the 20th European Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security, T. Eze, L. Speakman, C. Owubiko (ed.), Chester 2021, p. 11–18.
Bartnik A., Koniec przywilejów. Nowa fala emigracji kubańskiej do Stanów Zjednoczonych, „Ameryka Łacińska. Kwartalnik analityczno-informacyjny” 2017, No. 2, p. 57–71.
Bączkowski W., Uwagi o istocie siły rosyjskiej, „Wschód–Orient. Kwartalnik poświęcony sprawom Wschodu” 1938, No. 4, p. 1–18.
Bittman L., The KGB and Soviet Disinformation. A Insider’s View, Washington 1985. 
Cuban American National Foundation, Castro and the Narcotics Connection. Special Report, Washington 1983.
Duany J., Cuban Communities in the United States: Migration Waves, Settlement Patterns and Socioeconomic Diversity, „Pouvoirsdans la CaraibeRevuedu Centre de recherche sur lespouvoirslocauxdans la Caraibe” 1999, No. 11, p. 69–103.
Dupes Hawk K. et al., Florida and the Mariel Boatlift of 1980: The First Twenty Days, Tuscaloosa 2014.
“Estonian Internal Security Service. Annual Review 2020–2021” 2021.
El Ghamari M., Prawo do samostanowienia a kurdyjskie ruchy narodowościowe i ich status na arenie międzynarodowej, „Przegląd Politologiczny” 2016, No. 4, p. 59–76.
Escalante F., The Secret War: CIA Covert Operations Against Cuba 1959–1962, Melbourne 1995.
Finckenauer J.O., Waring E.J., Russian Mafia in America: Immigration, Culture, and Crime, Boston 1998.
Fridman O., Russian „Hybrid Warfare”: Resurgence and Politicization, Oxford 2018.
Galeotti M., Russian Political War: Moving Beyond the Hybrid, London 2019.
Greenhill K.M., Asymmetric Advantage-Weaponizing People as Non-Military Instruments of Cross-Domain Coercion, in: Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity, E. Gartzke, J. Lindsay (ed.), Oxford 2019, p. 259–289.
Greenhill K.M., Migration as a Coercive Weapon: New Evidence from the Middle East, in: Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics, K.M. Greenhill, P. Krause (ed.), Oxford 2018, p. 204–228.
Greenhill K.M., Migration as a Weapon in Theory and in Practice, „Military Review” 2016, No. 96, vol 6, p. 23–36.
Greenhill K.M., Strategic Engineered Migration as a Weapon of War, „Civil Wars” 2008, No. 10, vol. 1, p. 6–21.
Greenhill K.M., Weapons of Mass Migration. Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy, London 2010.
Greenhill K.M., Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement as an Instrument of Coercion, „Strategic Insights” 2010, No. 9, vol. 1. p. 116–159.
Hybrid Conflicts And Information Warfare: New Labels, Old Politics, O. Fridman, V. Kabernik, J.C. Pearce (ed.), Boulder 2019.
Jasper S., Russian Cyber Operations: Coding the Boundaries of Conflict, Washington 2020.
Kaczmarek F., Unia Europejska wobec Światowego Szczytu Humanitarnego, „Rocznik Integracji Europejskiej” 2016, No. 10, p. 413–428.
Koblentz G.D., Chemical-Weapon Use in Syria: Atrocities, Attribution, and Accountability, „The Nonproliferation Review” 2020, No. 1, p. 1–24.
Kot-Majewska K., Działania humanitarne na rzecz uchodźców i osób wewnętrznie przesiedlonych –kwestie prawno-instytucjonalne oraz praktyka, in: Pomoc humanitarna w świetle prawa i praktyki, P. Grzebyk, E. Mikos-Skuza (ed.), Warszawa 2016, p. 205–226.
Kotonen T., The Soldiers of Odin Finland. From a Local Movement to an International Franchise, in: Vigilantismagainst Migrants and Minorities, T. Bjorgo, M. Mareš (ed.), London 2019, p. 241–257.
Koura J., Waters R.A., Africanos versus Africanitos: the Soviet-Czechoslovak Competition to Protect the Cuban Revolution, „The International History Review” 2021, No. 43, p. 72–89.
Kraj K., Badania naukowe nad służbami specjalnymi, „Studia Administracji i Bezpieczeństwa” 2020, No. 8, p. 171–185.
Kraj K., Rosyjska wspólnota organów bezpieczeństwa, Kraków–Wrocław 2017.
Larzelere A., Castro’s Ploy-America’s Dilemma: The 1980 Cuban Boatlift, Washington 1988. 
Laskowska K., Rosyjskojęzyczna przestępczość zorganizowana. Studium kryminologiczne, Białystok 2006.
Latner T.A., Cuban Revolution in America: Havana and the Making of a United States Left, 1968–1992, Chapel Hill 2018.
Levchenko S., On the Wrong Side. My Life in the KGB, Washington 1988,
Mania A., Detente i polityka Stanów Zjednoczonych wobec Europy Wschodniej styczeń 1969 – styczeń1981, Kraków 2003.
Mertus J., Bait and Switch: Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Policy, London 2004.
McElrath K., Prosecution. Unsafe Haven: The United States, the IRA and Political Prisoners, London 2015.
McPherson A., Caribbean Taliban: Cuban American Terrorism in the 1970s, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2018, No. 31, vol. 2, p. 390–409.
Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, The Effects of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership. An Assessment, Helsinki 2016.
MusiałF., Podręcznik bezpieki. Teoria pracy operacyjnej Służby Bezpieczeństwa w świetle wydawnictw resortowych Ministerstwa Spraw Wewnętrznych PRL (1970–1989), Kraków 2015.
Najžer B., The Hybrid Age: International Security in the Era of Hybrid Warfare, London 2020.
Pawlikowicz L., Pion kontrwywiadu zagranicznego I Zarządu Głównego Komitetu Bezpieczeństwa Państwowego (przy Radzie Ministrów) ZSRR w latach 1954–1991 – funkcje, struktury i kadry. Zarys problematyki, „Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego” 2012, No. 7, p. 193–209.
Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy in Russia and Europe: Implications for U.S. National Security. A Minority Staff Report Prepared for the Use of the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate, One Hundred Fifteenth Congress, Second Session, Washington 2018.
Richelson J., Sword and Shield. The Soviet Intelligence and Security Apparatus, Cambridge–Massachusetts 1986.
Schoemaker H., Allegations of Russian Weaponized Migration Against the EU. With the Blackest Intention?, „Militaire Spectator” 2019, No. 7–8, p. 361–373.
Shuker P., Topor L., Russian Influence Campaigns Against NATO in the Baltic Region: Spread of Chaos and Divide et Impera, in: The Russian Federation in Global Knowledge Warfare. Influence Operations in Europe and Its Neighbourhood, London 2021, p. 295–315.
Statement of General Philip M. Breedlove, USAF, Commander, U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, in: United States Senate. Committee on Armed Services. Hearing to Receive Testimony of United States European Command, Washington 2016, p. 11–105.
Steger N., The Weaponization of Migration: Examining Migration as a 21st Century Tool of Political Warfare, Monterey 2014.
Terrorism: Commentary on Security Documents, vol. 141: Hybrid Warfare and the Gray Zone Threat, D.C. Lovelace (ed.), Oxford 2016.
Terrorism: Commentary on Security Documents, vol. 141: Russia’s Resurgence, D.C. Lovelace (ed.), Oxford 2017.
United States Department of State, Active Measures: A Report on the Substance and Process of Anti-U.S. Disinformation and Propaganda Campaigns, Washington 1986.
United States Congress, Senate, Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Securityand Terrorism, Role of Cuba in International Terrorism and Subversion. Intelligence Activities of the DGI. Hearings Before the Senate Subcommittee on Security and Terrorism, Washington 1982.
Wolf J.B., Antiterrorist Initiatives, New York 1989.
 
Russian literature
Борхсениус A.B., Операции информационной войны. Новая классификация, „Информационные войны”2016, No. 3, p. 2–10.
Величко B., От Лубянки до Кремля. Секретные миссии, Москва 2013.
Владимиров А.И., Новая Орда. Цель организованного мировым правительством переселения народов – ≪зачистка≫ Европы, „Военно-промышленный курьер” 2015, No. 45, p. 8.
Владимиров А.И., Основы общей теории войны. Часть I: Основы теории войны, Москва2012.
Военная мысль в терминах и определениях. vol. 1: Вооруженные силы Российской Федерации, H.H. Тютюнников (ed.), Mocква 2018.
Гареев М.А., Турко Н.И., Война: современное толкование теории и реалии практики, „Вестник Академии военных наук” 2017, No. 1, p. 4–10.
Герасимов B., Ценность науки в предвидении, „Военно-промышленный курьер” 2013, No. 8, p. 1–3.
Горкин А.П., Военный энциклопедический словарь, vol. 1, Mocква 2001.
Калугин O., Вид с Лубянки. „Дело” бывшего генерала КГБ. Месяц первый, Москва 1990.
Кряжев П.Н., Рецензия на монографию Владимирова А.И. ≪Основы общей теории войны≫, „Арсенал Отечества” 2012, No. 1, p. 84–87.
Новиков В.К., Голубчиков С.В., Современные сценарии ведения информационных войн и их итоги, „Вестник Академии военных наук” 2017, No. 2, p. 64–71.
Первое главное управление КГБ СССР, Основные направления и объекты разведывательной работы за границей. Учебное пособие КГБ, Москва 1970.
Рудаков A.B., Устинкин C.B., Гуманитарные технологии как инструмент разрушения идентичности граждан в современной информационной войне, „Вестник Академии военных наук”2017, No. 4, p. 33–37.
Сердюков А.Э., Военный энциклопедический словарь, Mocква 2007.
Турло С.С., Залдат И.П., Шпионаж, in: Антология истории спецслужб. Россия 1905–1924, Mocква 2007, p. 447–569.
Фролов А.П., КГБ и контрразведывательное искусство: взгляд изнутри на теорию контрразведывательного искусства, Москва 2003.
Шарапов А.К., Характеристика отдельных геополитических технологий, применяемых в современном геополитическом процессе, „Вестник Забайкальского государственного университета”2015, No. 4, p. 103–109.
 
Internet sources
Central Intelligence Agency. Directorate of Intelligence, Information Report. Cuba’s Foreign Policy Apparatus and How It Works, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79B00457A000400010001-8.pdf, p. 10 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Central Intelligence Agency. Directorate of Intelligence, Information Report. The Organization of the General Directorate of Intelligence (Direccion General de Inteligencia – DGI), https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/104-10186-10321.pdf, p. 4–5 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Central Intelligence Agency. Directorate of Intelligence, Information Report. Selection and Training of Cuban Intelligence Agents Abroad, https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/104-10186-10312.pdf, p. 4 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Cold War Experience. Cold War Espionage. Inside the KGB. An Interview with Retired KGB Maj. Gen. Oleg Kalugin, http://www3.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/episodes/21/interviews/kalugin/ [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Galeotti M., Gangster Geopolitics: The Kremlin’s Use of Criminals as Assets Abroad, https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/gangster-geopolitics-kremlins-use-criminals-assets-abroad [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
NATO 2030. United for a New Era. Analysis and Recommendations of the Reflection Group Appointed by the NATO Secretary General, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Schmid A.P., Links between Terrorism and Migration: An Exploration, http://icct.nl/app/uploads/2016/05/Alex-P.-Schmid-Links-between-Terrorism-and-Migration-1.pdf, p. 5 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Palmen T., Janus Putkonen tarjoaa turvapaikkaa MV-lehden Ilja Janitskinille, https://www.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/a/2016092822385546 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Political Youth Wings Launch Campaign Against Anti-immigrant Websites, Yleisradio Oy, https://yle.fi/news/3-8589632 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Russian Border Guard to STT: Russian Security Service Behind Northeast Asylum Traffic, Yleisradio Oy, https://yle.fi/news/3-8620174 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Soldiers of Odin’s Secret Facebook Group: Weapons, Nazi Symbols and Links to MV Lehti, Yleisradio Oy, https://yle.fi/news/3-8749308 [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Synovitz R., Is Russia ‘Weaponizing Refugees’ To Advance Its Geopolitical Goals?, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-weaponizing-syrian-refugees-geopolitical-goals/27562604.html [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Szymański P., Żochowski P., Rodkiewicz W., Wymuszanie współpracy: fińsko-rosyjski kryzys migracyjny, https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2016-04-06/wymuszanie-wspolpracy-finsko-rosyjski-kryzys-migracyjny [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
Tamayo J.O., Napoleon Vilaboa, „Father” of Mariel Boatlift, Speaks, „The Miami Herald”, 15 V 2010, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/espionage/vilaboa-2010.htm [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
 
Russian Internet sources
ДугинA., O новом мировом беспорядке, http://www.evrazia.tv/content/aleksandr-dugin-o-novom-mirovom-besporyadke [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
ЛепехинB., Возможен ли альянс России с курдами против Турции?, https://ria.ru/20151228/1350594925.html [accessed: 1 XII 2021].
СурковB., Куда делся хаос? Распаковка стабильности, https://actualcomment.ru/kuda-delsya-khaos-raspakovka-stabilnosti-2111201336.html [accessed: 1 XII 2021]. 
 
Legal Acts
North Atlantic Treaty, done at Washington on April 4, 1949 (Journal of Laws of 2000, No. 87 item 970).

Informacje

Informacje: Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego, 2022, Numer 26 (14), s. 263 - 300

Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy

Tytuły:

Polski:

The genesis, theory, and practice of Russian coercive migration engineering. A contribution to the study of the migration crisis on NATO’s eastern flank

Angielski:
The genesis, theory, and practice of Russian coercive migration engineering. A contribution to the study of the migration crisis on NATO’s eastern flank

Publikacja: 11.05.2022

Status artykułu: Otwarte __T_UNLOCK

Licencja: Żadna

Udział procentowy autorów:

Michał Wojnowski (Autor) - 100%

Korekty artykułu:

-

Języki publikacji:

Angielski