Imperialna polityka zagraniczna Federacji Rosyjskiej spowodowała poważne zmiany w architekturze bezpieczeństwa Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. W artykule zostały przytoczone wyniki badań zrealizowanych w latach 2019–2020 metodą sondażu diagnostycznego za pomocą techniki wywiadu eksperckiego. Wzięło w nich udział 11 ekspertów w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa i obronności. Przedmiotem badań były zagrożenia generowane przez Rosję w związku z jej ekspansywną polityką zagraniczną wobec Ukrainy i państw bałtyckich, a także ich wpływ na bezpieczeństwo Polski w perspektywie strategicznej. Na podstawie wyników tych badań oraz analizy literatury zostały opracowane trzy scenariusze (destabilizacyjny, poszerzania strefy wpływów i izolacyjny) dotyczące możliwych działań podejmowanych przez Federację Rosyjską w Polsce i wobec Polski.

ABSTRACT

The foreign policy of the Russian Federation as a source of threats to the Baltic states and their impact on the security of Poland

The imperial foreign policy of the Russian Federation has led to extensive changes in the security architecture of Central and Eastern Europe. In the article the results of studies were cited. Studies were carried out in the years 2019-2020, by the method of a diagnostic survey using the technique of expert interview. Eleven experts in the field of security and defense participated in the research. The threats generated by Russia in connection with its expansive foreign policy towards Ukraine and Baltic states and their impact on the security of Poland were the subject of the research. On the basis of the results of these studies and literature review, three scenarios were developed (destabilizing, expanding the sphere of influence and isolation) which concern possible actions taken by the Russian Federation in Poland and towards Poland.

The imperial foreign policy of the Russian Federation has led to extensive changes in the security architecture of Central and Eastern Europe. In the article the results of studies were cited. Studies were carried out in the years 2019-2020, by the method of a diagnostic survey using the technique of expert interview. Eleven experts in the field of security and defense participated in the research. The threats generated by Russia in connection with its expansive foreign policy towards Ukraine and Baltic states and their impact on the security of Poland were the subject of the research. On the basis of the results of these studies and literature review, three scenarios were developed (destabilizing, expanding the sphere of influence and isolation) which concern possible actions taken by the Russian Federation in Poland and towards Poland.