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DATA-DRIVEN SCORE TEST OF FIT FOR CLASS OF GARCH
MODELS

Data publikacji: 09.02.2015

Czasopismo Techniczne, 2014, Nauki Podstawowe Zeszyt 2 NP (16) 2014, s. 129 - 151

https://doi.org/10.4467/2353737XCT.14.305.3393

Autorzy

Bartosz Stawiarski
Institute of Mathematics, Cracow University of Technology
Wszystkie publikacje autora →

Tytuły

DATA-DRIVEN SCORE TEST OF FIT FOR CLASS OF GARCH
MODELS

Abstrakt

A data-driven score test of fit for testing the conditional distribution within the class of stationary GARCH(p,q) models is presented. In this paper extension of the complete results obtained by Inglot and Stawiarski in [7], as well as in Stawiarski [15] for the parsimonious GARCH(1,1) case is proposed. The null (composite) hypothesis subject to testing asserts that the innovations distribution, determining the GARCH conditional distribution, belongs to the specified parametric family. Generalized Error Distribution (called also Exponential Power) seems of special practical value. Applying the pioneer idea of Neyman [13] dating back to 1937, in combination with dimension selection device proposed by Ledwina [10] in 1994, lead to derivation uf the efficient score statistic and its data-driven version for this testing problem. In the case of GARCH(1,1) model both the asymptotic null distribution of the score statistic has been already established in [7] and [15], together with the asymptotics of the data-driven test statistic with appropriately regular estimators plugged in place of nuisance parameters. Main results are only stated herewith, while for detailed proofs inspection and power simulations, ample reference to these papers is provided. We show that the test derivation and asymptotic results carry over to stationary ARCH(q) models for any q 2 N. Moreover, thanks to ARCH(1) representation of the GARCH(p,q) model, the test can asymptotically encompass the full GARCH family, which as a final result provides the flexible testing tool in the GARCH(p, q) framework.

Bibliografia

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Inglot, T., Kallenberg, W.C.M., Ledwina, T. (1997). Data driven smooth tests for composite hypotheses. Ann. Stat. 25(3), 1222—1250.

Inglot T., Stawiarski B., Data-driven score test of fit for conditional distribution in the GARCH(1,1) model. Prob. Math. Stat. 25, 2005, 331—362.

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Ledwina, T., Data driven version of Neyman’s smooth test of fit. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 89, 1994, 1000–1005.

Lumsdaine R.L., Consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and covariance stationary models. Econometrica 64, 1996, 575—596.

Mittnik S., Paolella M.S., Rachev S., Unconditional and conditional distributional models for the Nikkei index. Asia-Pacific Fin. Markets 5, 1998, 99—128.

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Stawiarski B., Score test of fit for composite hypothesis in the GARCH(1,1) model. JSPI 139, 2009, 593—616.

Informacje

Informacje: Czasopismo Techniczne, 2014, Nauki Podstawowe Zeszyt 2 NP (16) 2014, s. 129 - 151

Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy

Tytuły:

Polski:

DATA-DRIVEN SCORE TEST OF FIT FOR CLASS OF GARCH
MODELS

Angielski:

DATA-DRIVEN SCORE TEST OF FIT FOR CLASS OF GARCH
MODELS

Autorzy

Institute of Mathematics, Cracow University of Technology

Publikacja: 09.02.2015

Status artykułu: Otwarte __T_UNLOCK

Licencja: Żadna

Udział procentowy autorów:

Bartosz Stawiarski (Autor) - 100%

Korekty artykułu:

-

Języki publikacji:

Angielski

Liczba wyświetleń: 1739

Liczba pobrań: 1067

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