Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling
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RIS BIB ENDNOTETarget backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling
Publication date: 29.03.2022
Problems of Forensic Sciences, 2021, 126-127, pp. 101-120
https://doi.org/10.4467/12307483PFS.20.006.15446Authors
Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling
The main aim of this research was to establish a minimum series length when crime opportunities are not distributed at random. In addition, the behaviour of two methods of assessing the accuracy of a geographic profiling algorithms were analysed. The second objective was to analyse the existence and properties of the buffer zone in the created model. For the purpose of this research, a simulation was used. Data showed significantly different behaviour in the two tested methods of assessing the accuracy of geographic profiling, with hit score percentage being the significantly more sensitive measurement. The tests allowed all of the effects attributed to the buffer zone to be obtained, despite the fact that it was not included in the model itself. For series as long as nine offences accuracy in non-random conditions was similar to series length five and uniform distribution of opportunities.
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Information: Problems of Forensic Sciences, 2021, 126-127, pp. 101-120
Article type: Original article
Titles:
Target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling. Simulation analysis of target backcloth, series length, and the accuracy of geographic profiling
College of Inter-Faculty Individual Studies in Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
Published at: 29.03.2022
Received at: 16.07.2020
Accepted at: 17.12.2021
Article status: Open
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND
Percentage share of authors:
Article corrections:
-Publication languages:
English, Polish