FAQ
Logotyp Agencji Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego

Practical dimension of issues related to assessing the reliability of sources and the trustworthiness of data and information

Data publikacji: 06.12.2023

Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego, 2023, Numer 29 (15), s. 323 - 358

https://doi.org/10.4467/20801335PBW.23.032.18774

Autorzy

Józef Kozłowski
Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa
, Polska
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1892-7413 Orcid
Wszystkie publikacje autora →

Tytuły

Practical dimension of issues related to assessing the reliability of sources and the trustworthiness of data and information

Abstrakt

The phases of preparation, analysis, integration, initial interpretation of data and intelligence are relatively widely described in the literature. Only the field of assessing the certainty of sources and the reliability of data and intelligence has not kept pace with the development of other elements in the domain of information operations. In view of the increasing intensity of activities carried out by potential adversaries, the methods, techniques and tools currently in use should be critically evaluated and their limitations identified, and attempts should be made to develop and implement new processes and procedures. Above all, the capacity to prepare and communicate increasingly accurate assessments of the certainty of sources and the reliability of data and information must be enhanced. Therefore, it is necessary to: quantify the accuracy of the information, prepare new procedures and software, study the degree of information redundancy, its completeness and level of diagnosticity. Acquisition and analytical apparatus staff must be aware of existing limitations and search for ways to solve problems. Such a search should not focus on one-size-fits-all methods, but on a pragmatic approach to each element.

Bibliografia

ATP 2-91.8 Techniques for Document and Media Exploitation (document publication date: 5 V 2015).

Balance of Power. Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, T.V. Paul, J.J. Wirtz, M. Fortman (eds.), Stanford University Press 2004.

Breakspear A., A New Definition of Intelligence, “Intelligence and National Security” 2013, vol. 28, no. 5, pp. 678–693. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2012.699285.

Bühlmann H., Mathematical Methods in Risk Theory, New York 1970.

Capet P., d’Allones R., Information Evaluation in the Military Domain: Doctrines, Practices and Shortcomings, in: Information Evaluation, P. Capet, T. Delavallade (eds.), New York 2014.

Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, T.V. Paul, P.M. Morgan, J.J. Wirtz (eds.), University of Chicago Press 2009.

Friedman J.A., Lerner J.S., Zeckhauser R., Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals, “International Organization” 2017, vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 803–826.

Gill P., Explaining Intelligence Failure: Rethinking the Recent Terrorist Attacks in Europe; “In- ternational Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence” 2020, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2019.1663702.

Gill P., Intelligence, Terrorism and the State, in: State, Power, Crime, R. Coleman et al. (eds.), 2009.

Gill P., Intelligence, Threat, Risk and the Challenge of Oversight, Routledge 2008.

Gill P., Policing in Ignorance?, “Criminal Justice Matters” 2004, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 14–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/09627250408553236.

Gill P., Security Intelligence and Human Rights. Illuminating the ‘Heart of Darkness’?, “Intelligence and National Security” 2009, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 78–102. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684520902756929.

Gill P., Theories of intelligence, in: The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence, L.K. Johnson (ed.), Oxford 2010, pp. 43–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195375886.003.0003.

Gill P., Thinking about Intelligence Within, Without, and Beyond the State, “All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace” 2014, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 5–20. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.167324.

Gill P., Twenty years on: Intelligence and Security Committee and investigating torture in the ‘war on terror’, “Intelligence and National Security” 2023, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 799–815. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2178606.

Gill P., Phythian M., Intelligence in an insecure world, Cambridge 2012. Herman M., Potęga wywiadu (Eng. The power of intelligence), Warszawa 2002.

Hilbert M., Toward a Synthesis of Cognitive Biases: How Noisy Information Processing can Bias Human Decision Making, “Psychological Bulletin” 2012, vol. 138, no. 2, pp. 211–237.

Hornowska E. et al., Paradoksalny efekt triangulacji? (Eng. The paradoxical effect of triangulation?), “Edukacja” 2012, no. 4, pp. 72–83.

Intelligence Theory. Key Questions and Debates, P. Gill, S. Marrin, M. Phythian (eds.), New York 2009.

Irwin D., Mandel D.R., Improving information evaluation for intelligence production, “Intelligence and National Security” 2019, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 503–525.

Jasiulewicz H., Teoria zaufania. Modele aktuarialne (Eng. Confidence theory. Actuarial models), Wrocław 2005.

Jewell W.S., Credible Means are Exact Bayesian for Simple Exponential Families, “ASTIN Bulletin. The Journal of the International Actuarial Association” 1974, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 77–90.

Johnson L.K., Wirtz J.J., Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies: An Anthology, Oxford University Press 2018.

Johnson L.K., Wirtz J.J., Strategic Intelligence: Windows into a Secret World: An Anthology, Roxbury 2004.

Kent S., Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy, Princeton 1949.

Kesselman R.F., Verbal Probability Expressions in National Intelligence Estimates: A Compre- hensive Analysis of Trends from the Fifties through Post 9/11, Erie 2008.

Kozłowski J., Teoria i praktyka działań analityczno-informacyjnych (Eng. Theory and practi- ce of analytical and information activities), Warszawa 2016.

Król A., Sieci bayesowskie jako narzędzie wspomagające proces podejmowania decyzji (Eng. Bayesian networks as a tool to support decision-making), “Zeszyty Naukowe Politech- niki Śląskiej” 2014, no. 71, pp. 209-219.

Marrin S., Analytic objectivity and science: evaluating the US Intelligence Community’s ap- proach to applied epistemology, “Intelligence and National Security” 2020, vol. 35, no. 3. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2019.1710806.

Marrin S., Evaluating CIA’s Analytic Performance: Reflections of a Former Analyst, “Orbis” 2013, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 325–339.

Marrin S., Evaluating intelligence theories: Current state of play, “Intelligence and National Security” 2018, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 479–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2018.1452567.

Marrin S., Improving Intelligence Studies as an Academic Discipline, “Intelligence and National Security” 2016, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 266–279. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2014.952932.

Marrin S., Understanding and improving intelligence analysis by learning from other disciplines, “Intelligence and National Security” 2017, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 539–547. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2017.1310913.

Marrin S., Rethinking Analytic Politicization, “Intelligence and National Security” 2013, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 32–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2012.749064.

Marrin S., Revisiting Intelligence and Policy: Problems with Politicization and Receptivity, Routledge 2015.

Marrin S., Why strategic intelligence analysis has limited influence on American foreign policy, “Intelligence and National Security” 2017, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 725–742. https://doi.org/10.108 0/02684527.2016.1275139.

Minkina M., Sztuka wywiadu w państwie współczesnym (Eng. The art of intelligence in the modern state), Warszawa 2014.

Nickerson R.S., Feehrer C.E., Decision Making and Training: A Review of Theoretical and Empirical Studies of Decision Making and Their Implications for the Training of Decision Makers, Cambridge 1975.

Planning the Unthinkable. How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons, P.R. Lavoy, S.D. Sagan, J.J. Wirtz (eds.), Cornell University Press 2000.

Reed W., Collins L., Plunging Point: Intelligence Failures, Cover-ups and Consequences, London 2005.

Samet M.G., Subjective Interpretation of Reliability and Accuracy Scales for Evaluating Military Intelligence, Arlington 1975.

Samet  M.G.,  Quantitative  Interpretation  of  Two  Qualitative  Scales  Used to Rate Military Intelligence, “Human Factors” 1975, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 192–202. https://doi.org/10.1177/001872087501700210.

Science and Technology Organization, Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision-Making, STO-TR-SAS-114 (08.02.2019).

Shulsky A.N., Schmitt G.J., Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence, Washing- ton 2002.

Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge, R. Godson, J.J. Wirtz (eds.), Routledge 2017.

Tversky A., Kahneman D., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, “Science. New Series” 1974, vol. 185, no. 4157, pp. 1124–1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124.

Virine L., Turner M., Project Decisions: The Art and Science, Vienna 2007.

Warner M., Wanted: A definition of intelligence, “Studies in Intelligence” 2002, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 15–22.

Wheaton K.J., Beerbower M.T., Towards a new definition of intelligence, “Stanford Law and Policy Review” 2006, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 319–330.

Wilson T.D. et al., A New Look at Anchoring Effects: Basic Anchoring and its Antecedents, “Journal of Experimental Psychology” 1996, vol. 125, no. 4, pp. 387–402.

Wirtz J.J., The Tet Offensive. Intelligence Failure in War, Cornell University Press 1991.

 

Internet sources

Ekström M.A., Björnsson H.C., A rating system for AEC e-bidding that accounts for rater credibility, Digital Library, https://itc.scix.net/paper/ecce-2001-6 [accessed: 17 III 2023].

Joint Doctrine Publication 2-00. Understanding and Intelligence Support to Joint Operations (4th Edition)https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1178940/JDP_2_00_Ed_4_web.pdf [accessed: 30 VIII 2023].

NATO – STANAG 2511 Intelligence Reports, https://standards.globalspec.com/std/720819/ stanag-2511 [accessed: 17 III 2023].

NATO – AJP-2.1 Intelligence Procedureshttps://standards.globalspec.com/std/108985/ajp-2-1  [accessed: 17 III 2023].

Informacje

Informacje: Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego, 2023, Numer 29 (15), s. 323 - 358

Typ artykułu: Oryginalny artykuł naukowy

Tytuły:

Polski:

Practical dimension of issues related to assessing the reliability of sources and the trustworthiness of data and information

Angielski:

Practical dimension of issues related to assessing the reliability of sources and the trustworthiness of data and information

Autorzy

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1892-7413

Józef Kozłowski
Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa
, Polska
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1892-7413 Orcid
Wszystkie publikacje autora →

Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa
Polska

Publikacja: 06.12.2023

Status artykułu: Otwarte __T_UNLOCK

Licencja: CC-BY-NC-SA  ikona licencji

Udział procentowy autorów:

Józef Kozłowski (Autor) - 100%

Korekty artykułu:

-

Języki publikacji:

Angielski