Analysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096
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RIS BIB ENDNOTEAnalysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096
Publication date: 29.12.2017
Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, Volume 7 (2017), Issue 4 (2017), pp. 5-13
https://doi.org/10.4467/24512249JG.17.032.7632Authors
Analysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096
Negative demographic tendencies are some of the most serious problems of development of post-Socialist countries. Goal of this research is historical analysis and forecast of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The demographic forecast is prepared on the basis of revision of forecast model of the Population Division of United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Scenario approach and simulation multi-factor modeling act as the main methods of this research. One of the key objectives is critical analysis of use of the hypothesis of stabilization of migration components of demographic processes in scenarios of UN Secretariat. According to the most probable scenario, Latvia (-49% of modern population) can become the leader in expected depopulation within the next 80 years among the considered countries, smaller indicators of depopulation are expected in Lithuania (-43%), Poland (-38%) and Estonia (-34%).
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Information: Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, Volume 7 (2017), Issue 4 (2017), pp. 5-13
Article type: Original article
Titles:
Analysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096
Analysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096
Department of Geography, Pskov State University, Lenina 2, 180000 Pskov, Russia,
Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics, Bolshoy Trehsvyatitelskiy per. 3, 109028 Moscow, Russia
Published at: 29.12.2017
Article status: Open
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND
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