Ewa Oziewicz

This paper, which draws on monthly data from 2002–2011, aims to prove that Polish emigration proceeds in spurts – it is, in other words, characterized by relatively long spells of stability that are followed by sudden outflows triggered by such factors as changes in unemployment or currency exchange rates. In doing so, it first seeks to find out whether SETAR (threshold) models are better-placed than ARMA/ARIMA models to estimate the pace and rate of emigration. It transpires from our econometric analysis that this is indeed the case, which, in turn, allowed us to estimate the threshold values of selected transition variables – emigration, unemployment, purchasing power parity, wages, GDP and the PLN/EUR exchange rate – that set off the outflows. These findings per se merit recognition due to their socio-economic and demographic implications. The study contributes to the literature by proposing an original approach to analyzing the dynamics of migratory processes.

The 20th century witnessed tremendous changes in the geopolitical and economic system of the world. New position of Asia with such economic pillars since the 60s and the 70s as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, strengthened by China, India and the ASEAN economies makes them important players in the international arena. There is no problem in the modern world that could be discussed without Asia. There are various points of view on the emerging, or rather reemerging Asia, depending on the location one looks at it from. The author presents European, American, Russian, Polish and Asian perspective towards Asia and its changing economic position. The way of perceiving Asia by them is different and connected with expectations and interests of each of those agents. The author is also answering a question about sources of economic dynamism of the Asian continent but one should not forget that there are situated nine of the poorest 50 economies there.

The 21st century has been said to be the century of Asia. The dynamism of Asian economies for a few last decades is a kind of confirmation of the above statement. The contemporary world is undergoing transformation not only in its economic, but also geopolitical sphere. The changes lead to the formation of new political and economic order, where a place for new emerging powers should be found. China is one of such powers. This country is the most evident example of an Asian economy which is changing not only internally, but also causing great shift in the world order. The article shows the new position of the Chinese economy in this world order.