Andrzej A. Marsz

The study discusses changes in the average annual air temperature over Europe in the years 1931–2020. The results of the research show that in 1987–1989, there was a sudden change in the thermal regime over Europe and a discontinuity appeared in the course of this climatic element. In the years 1931–1988, despite the high inter-annual variability, the temperature trend was zero. A positive, statistically significant, temperature trend appeared after 1988. The entire warming in Europe, which can be estimated at ~2.3 deg, occurred after 1988. The discontinuity in the course was caused by an abrupt change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-Eurasian circulation sector, which manifests itself as a fundamental change in the frequency of the macrotypes of the mid-tropospheric circulation (500 hPa) according to the Wangengejm-Girs classification, causing an equally fundamental change in the weather structure. The change in macro-circulation conditions was forced by a change in the thermal state of the North Atlantic – a sharp increase in the intensity of oceanic heat transport to the north. The analysis showed that the annual variability of temperature over Europe was mainly influenced by natural processes, the variability of which explains ~65% of its variance. Radiative forcing, which is a function of anthropogenic increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, explains only 7–8% of the variability of the average annual temperature over Europe, being a secondary or tertiary factor in shaping its changes.

The study discusses changes in the sunshine duration in Poland, occurring in the years 1966–2018. The main analysis was carried out on a series of annual area sunshine duration, calculated from 11 stations, distributed relatively evenly throughout the area of Poland (variable UPLRK). A discontinuity was found in the course of UPLRK, consisting a quantum leap of this value in the years 1987–1989, and then the appearance of a statistically significant positive trend in the course of UPLRK. A change in the course of UPLRK and the total change in the sunshine duration regime occurred at the moment of change in ‘circulation epochs’, characterized by a change in the frequency structure of the mid-tropospheric circulation of macro-types W, E and C according to the Wangengejm-Girs classification. The frequency of these macro-types, by controlling the variability of the lower circulation (SLP fields), controls changes in sunshine duration. An increase in the frequency of the W macro-type, with which the UPLRK values are positively correlated, and a simultaneous decrease in the frequency of the E macro-type, with which sunshine duration is negatively correlated, which occurred at the time of change of macro-circulation epochs in 1987–1989, resulted in corresponding changes in the behavior of the sunshine duration process in Poland. Changes in the frequencies of the W and E macro-types are controlled by changes in the distribution of heat resources in particular waters of the North Atlantic. These changes are controlled by changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (NA THC). As a result, the changes in the UPLRK observed in the years 1966–2018 reconstruct changes in both the macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circulation sector and changes in the NA THC phases. This allows for a conclusion that the variability of UPLRK is a result of the internal dynamics of the climate system, and not, as it has been believed so far, the effects of anthropogenic changes in the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere.

The work discusses the air temperature course of winter periods (December–March) in Poland in the years 1720–2015. The analysis is carried out for area mean values calculated from 5 stations: Szczecin, Wrocław, Warsaw, Wilno and Lwów. The time series of the mean area winter temperature (hereinafter PLZ) consists of combined observational (140 years) and  reconstructed (156 years) data. The PLZ reconstruction is based on independent variables, i.e. the values of the maximum area of the Baltic Sea covered with ice in a given ice season and the monthly temperatures in January and March from the Central England Temperature (CET) data set. The obtained correlations between the independent variables and the PLZ  are strong, highly significant and stable. A statistical analysis shows that the course of PLZ is strongly correlated (r = 0.80, p <0.001) with the series of mean winter temperatures in Europe reconstructed by Luterbacher et al. (2006). In the analysed period of the years 1720–2015 the course of winter temperatures is non-stationary, there were periods of cooling and warming with different amplitude and duration. The variation range of PLZ falls within the limits from –6.24 (in 1929) to +3.35°C (in 1990). Winters with temperatures below 0°C account for 72% of winters in the examined period. Relatively mild winters dominated  ver Poland during the analysed period, with an average temperature ranging from –1°C to 0°C and from 0°C to 1°C, accounting for a total of 39.5% of all winters. The trend occurring in the PLZ time series is very weak (+0.0020 (±0.0012)°C·year–1; p = 0.103) and statistically insignificant, despite the fact that the highest PLZ values in the entire analysed period occur after the year 1988. The analyses show that the variability of PLZ in the entire examined period does not go beyond the limits of natural variability and the recent increase in PLZ is not unprecedented. Similarly strong temperature increases in winter temperatures were observed several times after the year 1720. The coldest winters occurred between the decades 1751–1760 and 1841–1850. The greatest variability of PLZ is observed in the twentieth century, when the coldest (1961–1970, decade mean PLZ –2.253°C) and the warmest decades (1991–2000, PLZ +0.020°C) occurred in the entire analysed period. The breakthrough in the course of PLZ, combined with the change in the thermal structure of winters, which can be identified with the end of the Little Ice Age, occurred gradually in the years 1858–1885 along with an increase in the intensity of the zone circulation. Changes in the solar constant and the frequency of volcanic eruptions did not affect the variability of winter temperatures.