Sergey Sushchiy

The article studies quantitative and spatial dynamics of the Russian speaking population of the post soviet Ukraine. The factors accelerating the demographic shrinkage of the Russians of the country by 3 million people during 1989–2001 are analyzed. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the results of the 2001 Ukrainian census and the data of the ethnic and linguistic surveys of the Ukrainian population the conclusion is drawn that the core role in a prompt reduction of the number of the Russians belong to the assimilation. The analysis of the dynamic trends of the last several years allows affirming that within the borders of the modern Ukraine without the Crimea and the Donbas which is politically independent from Kyiv there may live about 4.1–4.5 million Russians. The study of eventual middle term prospects prove that by 2030 the given  number may reduce to 3.3–3.7 million people. The important role in this process will play all three factors of the number dynamics: natural decline, outward migration flow, assimilation. But the core role in the demographic shrinkage of the Russian community belongs to the assimilation or the transition from the Russian to the Ukrainian self identity of a part of the biological and ethnic community of Ukraine. However the number of the Russians in the country recorded by all ensuing censuses of the population was lower than the real ethnic and cultural presence of the “Russian world” in Ukraine as the above mentioned identity transfer was not accompanied by an acculturation. The Russian language and culture not only dominate in the Russian environment but also keep a weighty role within the dominant country group. Only by prolongation of several decades of tough of a severe anti Russian course Ukraine is capable of undermining the social and cultural potential of the Russian world.

This article examines the political, ethno-demographic and socio-economic aspects of the self-proclaimed republics of Eastern Donbass. It is concluded that the most likely scenario is to preserve them as politically independent from Kiev, the pro- Russian societies with an uncertain international political status.

The process of state bodies’ system formation in Eastern Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk people’s Republic – D(L)PR), further legitimizing of the vertical power of the republics through activation of local party life and finalizing the system of elections for leaders and deputy corps of various levels are expected to be completed in the coming years.

The socio-political fate of Donbass will also largely determine the further ethnic evolution of its population, both in the western (Ukrainian) and the eastern (“republican”) parts. The consolidation of the republics as stable political and administrative and territorial entities in the medium term (by 2025-2030) may lead to a quantitative predominance of the Russian population within their borders (taking into account bi-ethnophors with Russian ethnic self-identification).

At present the only realistic scenario of socio-economic development of the republics remains their progressive “shadow” integration into the life cycles of the Russian economy. In the next few years a serious spatial transformation of the entire infrastructure complex of the D(L)PR, including a network of transport communications and the basic systems of social life support, is expected. The transformation is caused by a radical turn of trade and economic ties of the region to Russia and the need to move the central infrastructural hubs of the republics away from the front line.