%0 Journal Article
%T Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system
%A Aleksandrowicz, Tomasz
%J Terrorism – studies, analyses, prevention
%V 2024
%R 10.4467/27204383TER.24.028.20248
%N Issue 6 (6)
%P 405-427
%K forecasting, terrorist threats, anti-terrorist system
%@ 2720-4383
%D 2024
%U https://ejournals.eu/en/journal/terroryzm/article/forecasting-terrorist-threats-as-an-element-of-the-anti-terrorist-system
%X The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a possibility, and not with cognitive certainty. System analysis was used as the basic research method.