@article{01926bc5-cfb8-72fd-9752-dd4150d58cb0,
author = {Tomasz Aleksandrowicz},
title = {Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system},
journal = {Terrorism – studies, analyses, prevention},
volume = {2024},
number = {Issue 6 (6)},
year = {2024},
issn = {2720-4383},
pages = {405-427},keywords = {forecasting; terrorist threats; anti-terrorist system},
abstract = {The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a possibility, and not with cognitive certainty. System analysis was used as the basic research method.},
doi = {10.4467/27204383TER.24.028.20248},
url = {https://ejournals.eu/en/journal/terroryzm/article/forecasting-terrorist-threats-as-an-element-of-the-anti-terrorist-system}
}