TY - JOUR
TI - Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system
AU - Aleksandrowicz, Tomasz
TI - Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system
AB - The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a possibility, and not with cognitive certainty. System analysis was used as the basic research method.
VL - 2024
IS - Issue 6 (6)
PY - 2024
SN - 2720-4383
C1 - 2720-6351
SP - 127
EP - 150
DO - 10.4467/27204383TER.24.018.19406
UR - https://ejournals.eu/en/journal/terroryzm/article/prognozowanie-zagrozen-terrorystycznych-jako-element-systemu-antyterrorystycznego
KW - forecasting
KW - terrorist threats
KW - anti-terrorist system