TY - JOUR
TI - Quantitative estimation of the impact of random confounding factors on the duration
	and cost of construction wor
AU - Kasprowicz, Tadeusz
TI - Quantitative estimation of the impact of random confounding factors on the duration
	and cost of construction wor
AB - 
	Random events may interfere with the execution process and results of the work. Then, the duration and cost of work are random variables. The random characteristics of these variables are described by using the β-PERT probability distribution and the simplified formulas. To determine the probable changes of the duration and cost of work, depending on the random factors, the coefficients of optimism and pessimism have been used. Additionally, the coefficients of improvement and deterioration of conditions of work implementation have been introduced. The values of these coefficients are calculated depending on the type, the probability of occurrence, the intensity of random perturbations and depending on the probable changes of the work duration as well as the probability and cost consequences of the price increase. Extreme random improvement and deterioration of the work execution conditions are analysed.
VL - 2017
IS - Volume 8 Year 2017 (114)
PY - 2017
SN - 0011-4561
C1 - 2353-737X
SP - 73
EP - 79
DO - 10.4467/2353737XCT.17.130.6881
UR - https://ejournals.eu/czasopismo/czasopismo-techniczne/artykul/quantitative-estimation-of-the-impact-of-random-confounding-factors-on-the-duration-and-cost-of-construction-wor
KW - construction
KW - risk
KW - coefficients of optimism and pessimism